In the past several months since June 2007 we have
witnessed higher short term historical volatilities
and substantially higher implied volatilities in a
large number of stock options on individual equities.
As any student of the options game knows, higher
historical and implied volatility means higher
"time premiums". So if you hold long term ESOs,
their value has increased because the
"time premiums" have increased.
The result is that if you make premature exercises
now, the value that you will forfeit back to the
company is greater.
This also means that the options that you may have
considered using to
hedge your
ESOs are trading at
higher premiums.
In addition, the case can not be clearer that you
should not make premature exercises during times
of rising
volatility or during rising interest rates.
If long term calls were "written" prior to the recent
rise of implied volatilities, a "writer" may find that
there has been no positive
erosion over time or that
the calls are even higher than they were when written.
Just be conscious that the
theoretical value of the
ESOs in most cases have risen perhaps even more
than the nearer term
listed options.
John Olagues